However, including 100% of this time as time at risk of transmitting HIV sexually would only have doubled the estimates and thereby not change our results significantly. Wilson et al. [10] have suggested that the risk of transmitting HIV sexually may be higher than assumed by the the Swiss Federal Commission for HIV/AIDS. Their statistical model is, however, based on the presumption ACP-196 concentration that the relationship between VL and risk of HIV transmission is linear. Although there is little
evidence supporting the idea of an infectious threshold, our study (like the recommendations of the Swiss Federal Commission for HIV/AIDS) assumes that there is a VL threshold below which the risk of HIV transmission is negligible. Also, it is still a matter of debate
whether the relationship between VL and risk of HIV transmission is linear or based on a threshold mechanism. However, the findings of Quinn et al. [1] and Melo et al. [2] suggest a low risk of transmission in patients Selleck X-396 with VL<1500 copies/mL. Concerning the choice of cut-off value, our test for robustness showed that the cut-off value of 1000 copies/mL is reasonable. The median period between VL tests was 3 months, and 81.2% of the VL tests were taken within 4 months of the previous test. Although a VL increase may have passed undetected, we presume that most viraemias above 1000 copies/mL are captured in the present study design. We only had access to self-reported civil status and sexual behaviour for 37.7% and 37.4%, respectively, of the included patients. However, our data indicate that neither patients living in stable partnerships nor patients practising safe sex differ from other patients in risk of transmitting HIV. In terms of compliance among patients in stable partnerships, this is consistent with Fludarabine cost previous findings [11]. Our results indicate that injecting drug users on successful HAART have a higher risk of transmitting HIV, which is probably mainly a result of compliance problems [11]. Stratification by year of HAART initiation
did not change our estimates, but when stratified by the duration of periods of suppressed VL, the risk of viral rebound was highest among patients with periods of suppressed VL of less than 6 months. Smith et al. [12] found similar results with regard to viral rebound among highly experienced HIV-infected patients. Among patients with periods of suppressed VL of more than 5 years, the risk of transmission of HIV was very low. This group of patients has been able to maintain a suppressed VL through times of less efficient and user-friendly regimens and is a selected group with high adherence. Our results therefore indicate that there would be a substantial gain in reducing the risk of infecting the sexual partner, if the time limit recommended by the Swiss Federal Commission for HIV/AIDS of undetectable VL was extended from 6 months to at least 12 months.